
I decided that for this year I wanted to try to post one picture every day, and say something about it.
Today’s photo is just a potato in a ditch.
Some days there isn’t much to say.

Last Sunday I preached at Saratoga Federated Church, which is our home church these days. I’ve been filling the pulpit there roughly once a quarter for the last couple years. It is nice to get to continue to practice the craft of preaching now and again.
I’ve always enjoyed being in the worship space before everyone arrives on Sunday morning, feeling the calm and anticipating that day’s opportunities for joy and connection inherent in worship.
Here the worship band was working out a few final kinks for the one member of our congregation who showed up so early. She enjoyed the private practice session.
I’m finalizing a manuscript version of the sermon from December 28, and I’ll post it here when it is ready.
I was shopping with one of my sons over the weekend. The store wasn’t especially crowded, but they were short staffed and so the line was long and slow. My son is usually in motion, so waiting in line requires using a variety of sensory-input strategies to pass the time. Little stay-in-place activities like giving hand squeezes, standing on his toes, or even small bounces in place will help him to endure the tedium, and so we did these things as we waited for our turn to check out.
He also likes things to be orderly, so when items at the check-out line, like the candy displays or the plastic bars to separate orders on the conveyor belt, are misaligned he will organize them while he waits.
When it was our turn to check out he stood with me at the register as I tried to get the card reader to recognize my debit card. Then he noticed that someone at the front of the store had left a helium balloon unattended. This reminded him that he loves to release balloons to float off into the sky, and he quickly walked to the errant balloon and started for the front door. Seeing this I left the register (debit card still sitting in the card reader) and blocked his path. “No, no, that’s not yours, we need to leave it alone,” as he tried to push past me, before accepting my redirection and letting go of the balloon. The entire exchange took less than 5 seconds.
Returning to the register my card was finally accepted, and he took our bag and headed for the door. “Thank you,” I said to the cashier.
“Have a good day. And you have the patience of a saint,” she responded.
Usually this sort of comment triggers embarrassment in me, as I would rather move through these life moments unnoticed. When he was young, I would feel the burning sense that I was being judged as insufficient as a parent and a caregiver – maybe even being exposed as actually being insufficient to this role. This time, I was initially confused, and then I was angry.
Confused, because his actions in the store were so inconsequential. Nothing was lost or broken, no one else was inconvenienced beyond the seconds it took to redirect him back to line. Why did this woman think I was being patient? Then her view of the moment sucker-punched me: I was impressively patient because I related to him respectfully. That’s when I got angry.
If you haven’t spent time with my son some of his choices will be unexpected. Some of them are inappropriate (recent episodes of dumping water on cars so he can see people use their windshield wipers come to mind), but many of them are just atypical, like sing-songy vocalizations and asking for hand squeezes. Some of them are actually helpful – organizing a disorderly display, or putting stray carts where they belong. None of these choices, or any of the other unusual things he might do in any given moment, make him less worthy of respect as a person. None of it changes that at the same time he is impulsive and socially awkward he is also kind, funny, smart, playful, charming, and eager for connection. He’s fully human.
When we look at another person and decide that being in relationship with them requires super-human attributes we are denying their humanity, we are cutting them out of the picture of community. Even the “difficult” people. Even the “weird” people. We are giving ourselves an excuse to not be fully human ourselves. We are hurting ourselves, but more importantly we are hurting them and all of the people who are blessed by their presence.
Different does not mean inherently difficult, or threatening.
Include people who are different from you.
Perceive the ways they can expand your perspective.
Let them season and deepen the flavor of your community.
All the teams in Major League Baseball crossed the 40-game mark last weekend. The team I follow, the Cubs, seems to be committing a second season to not trying to compete and instead “evaluating” the talent of prospects and players existing in the liminal space between being a prospect and starting a career after baseball. Some of those players continue to tantalize fans with the hope that they might be able to be regular contributors despite the issues that caused their prospect shine to tarnish. This means I’ve spent too much time this season thinking about how productive a player can be while having a major hole in their game, or while having only one true strength. Now that one quarter of the season is complete, I decided to take a deeper look at some of the players around baseball who are succeeding or failing in unusual ways.
I focused my attention on three basic aspects of offensive performance which are typically central to why batters succeed or fail: hitting the ball, hitting the ball hard, and passing on bad pitches, which can be measured by the rate stats K%, ISO (Isolated Power), and BB%. DISCLAIMER: I am absolutely a nerd, and my fascination with looking differently at the numbers of baseball was kindled by the Bill James Baseball Abstracts of the 1980s, which I would devour to the detriment of all my high school coursework every spring. However, I cannot swim in the depths of modern statistical analysis and therefore cannot rightly call myself a stat analyst in the modern sense. We will be wading in the shallows here. I was curious to see how good a batter can be if they strike out at a high rate, or walk at a low rate, or don’t hit for much power; also, how bad can a batter be if they limit strikeouts, excel at drawing walks, or hit for a lot of power?
The parameters I’m using here are largely borrowed from the stat glossary at FanGraphs, and I’m also using their measurements of all these stats. I’m using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to classify players as doing well or not; specifically, since a seasonal WAR total of 2 is considered average for a starting position player, I’m using 0.5 WAR through the first quarter of the season as the line for success or the lack thereof.
Best Players with a Bad K%
In 2021, when all who are not pitchers agreed that strikeouts were out of control, MLB batters struck out in 23.2% of all plate appearances. In 2017 that rate was 21.6%, and so far in 2022 the rate is 22.5%. For that reason, I’ve decided to label 30% or higher to be a high K rate, and 15% or lower to be a low K rate. So, which batters have been average or above while striking out at least 30% of the time this season?
| Player | K% | WAR |
| Patrick Wisdom | 40.3% | 0.6 |
| Chris Taylor | 34.9% | 0.6 |
| Dansby Swanson | 34.4% | 1.4 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 33.1% | 1.3 |
| Brandon Marsh | 32.4% | 0.7 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 32.4% | 0.7 |
| Cody Bellinger | 31.9% | 0.8 |
| Julio Rodriguez | 31.4% | 1.0 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 31.1% | 0.8 |
| Pavin Smith | 30.6% | 0.5 |
And here we immediately see why I was drawn into this exercise, as the Cubs leading reclamation candidate (Wisdom) and newest hope for the future (Suzuki) are both on the list. Seiya Suzuki’s K rate in Japan was only 16%, so there is reason to hope that this high K rate is a product of him learning the league. I’m amused that the list has two Cubs (and one former Cub in Schwarber), two Dodgers and two Mariners. Half of the players on this list are bringing positive defensive value to their WAR, with Dansby Swanson being the only player who may be bringing most of their value with defense, but even without his defense he would be above the 0.5 WAR threshold.
I am surprised that there are this many players on the list; however, another way of looking at it is that there are 115 offensive players with at least 0.5 WAR so far this year (with at least 120 plate appearances, which was my cutoff), so it’s clearly the less likely way to succeed.
For what it’s worth, there are only 4 players to date who are striking out more than 30% of the time and notproducing enough to justify starting: Franmil Reyes (-0.6 WAR), Adam Duvall (-0.1), Tyler O’Neill (-0.3), and Jesus Sanchez (0.3). Two vets whose teams are counting on turnarounds (Duvall and Sanchez) and two young-ish players who are underperforming their previous levels (one of whom, O’Neill, has been put on the IL).
Good K%, Bad Results
What happens when we flip the chart on its head? Who are the players who are keeping their K rate low but not producing good value?
| Player | K % | WAR |
| Jose Iglesias | 10.3% | 0.2 |
| Alex Verdugo | 10.5% | -0.5 |
| Miguel Rojas | 10.5% | 0.2 |
| Amed Rosario | 12.4% | 0.2 |
| Gio Urshela | 12.5% | 0.1 |
| Abraham Toro | 12.6% | 0.2 |
| Wilmer Flores | 13.2% | 0.2 |
| Jesse Winker | 13.4% | -0.3 |
| Nicky Lopez | 13.6% | 0.3 |
| Tony Kemp | 14.1% | 0.1 |
| Whit Merrifield | 14.2% | 0.1 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 14.3% | 0.1 |
| Dylan Carlson | 14.6% | 0.3 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 14.9% | -0.2 |
There are 37 players with a K rate below 15%, and 14 of them are still not producing up to the standard of an average starter. That surprised me, and my assumption was that these players were undermined by severely bad defense. I was completely shocked to find that 13 of these 14 players had negative Offensive WAR numbers – only Wilmer Flores was dragged below the average line by his defense!
Most of the players on this list have either an ISO or their BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) way below their established norms, which suggests that their teams are giving them this much room to fail because they believe that their numbers (and therefore their value) will return to normal and acceptable levels. Jesse Winker is a great example: he has a career ISO over .200, but so far this year it is at .080. Seattle certainly didn’t trade for a corner outfielder from the Deadball Era, so they are obviously going to give him time to figure things out. His new teammate Abraham Toro is another example. The Mariners are hoping he will be a useful piece for them, and he has a very short track record in the majors (not quite 700 ML plate appearances), so he’s going to still get time to figure things out.
The most intriguing cases to watch from this list are players on teams that have serious postseason aspirations. If Yuli Gurriel continues to be the less valuable version of himself will the Astros feel pressured to find a stouter First Baseman? Will Dylan Carlson be moved to the bench if the Cardinals see an opportunity to catch the Brewers, or need to cement their Wild Card status?
Provide Value and Carry a Weak Stick
Chicks dig the long ball. And by “chicks,” I mean General Managers, and marketing executives, and pretty much everybody except pitchers. So who are the players who managed to climb Major League Mountain despite possessing a gentler offensive profile?
| Player | ISO | WAR |
| Geraldo Perdomo | .049 | 0.5 |
| Cesar Hernandez | .065 | 0.5 |
| Luis Arraez | .068 | 0.7 |
| Alejandro Kirk | .071 | 0.6 |
| Myles Straw | .073 | 1.1 |
| Gavin Lux | .074 | 0.9 |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | .075 | 0.9 |
| Trey Mancini | .088 | 0.6 |
| Adam Frazier | .097 | 1.0 |
| Andrew Benintendi | .098 | 1.2 |
| Andrew Velazquez | .099 | 0.6 |
There are 40 players with at least 120 PAs and an ISO below .100, but these are the only 11 who are providing starter-level value. Most of them do it the same way, exemplified by three guys in the middle of the chart: Myles Straw, Gavin Lux, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. All three take their walks at positive rates and play plus defense, with Straw and Lux also adding meaningful baserunning value. Most of the rest of the list follow this script, with slightly less success. Only a couple guys find enough success with a high average but minus defensive value, with Luis Arraez and Andrew Benintendi being the exemplars.
The Weirdest Ones
There is a reason all manner of Chicks dig the long ball, though. It’s almost impossible to hit for power and not be valuable. Here is the entire list of players with more than 120 PAs and an ISO over .200 who have not accounted for at least 0.5 WAR through a quarter of the season:
| Player | ISO | WAR |
| Daniel Vogelbach | .216 | 0.2 |
| Gary Sanchez | .208 | 0.2 |
That’s it.
You can hit below .200, but if you do it with power you can still accumulate value (Christian Walker and Kyle Schwarber).
You can strike out 40% of the time, but if you generate power in enough of the other 60% of at bats you can still accumulate value (Patrick Wisdom).
You can walk 4% of the time, but still accumulate value if you hit for power (Rafael Devers).
You can be truly atrocious on defense and overcome it by hitting for power (surprisingly, former Gold Glovers Anthony Rizzo and Paul Goldschmidt).
However, if you hit for a low average and strike out a lot and play “defense” and create mayhem on the bases for your own team, your power will not save you.
This is the lesson.
Don’t Walk, Produce Runs
Finally, we come to the extremes of walk rate. In 2022 the league walk rate is 8.5%, and in 2021 it was 8.6%, so we will use 8.5% as our baseline. So, how many players are walking less than 4.5% of the time and creating value?
| Player | BB% | WAR |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 2.5% | 1.0 |
| Starling Marte | 2.9% | 0.5 |
| Tim Anderson | 3.7% | 2.0 |
| Jorge Mateo | 4.0% | 0.5 |
| Wander Franco | 4.1% | 1.2 |
| Luis Robert | 4.2% | 1.3 |
| Rafael Devers | 4.3% | 2.5 |
| Bobby Witt, Jr. | 4.3% | 0.9 |
Through the first quarter of the season 8 of the 22 qualifying players with low walk rates were achieving starter-quality value, which is a worse ratio than the high K rate players (10 of 17) but better than the low ISO batters (11 of 40). If there is a point to be taken from this it is the affirmation that Babe Ruth was on to something with his decision to strive for power. I suppose we already knew that by now.
These 8 non-walkers gain their value in the full range of manners – hitting for high average (Tim Anderson and Rafael Devers), hitting for impressive power (Devers again, and Bobby Witt, Jr.), and playing great defense (Travis d’Arnaud, Jorge Mateo and Witt) – or just doing everything other than walking better than average (Wander Franco and Luis Robert). I think this list has more exciting players – like Franco, Robert, Devers and Anderson – than any of the others.
Okay, He Can Walk. What Else Can He Do?
Finally, we come to the last group of outliers. Surely a high walk rate is desirable, but who are the least valuable walkers?
| Player | BB% | WAR |
| Max Muncy | 20.2% | 0.3 |
| Carlos Santana | 16.4% | 0.0 |
| Aaron Hicks | 15.7% | -0.1 |
| Darin Ruf | 15.7% | 0.2 |
| Joey Gallo | 13.9% | -0.2 |
| Brandon Belt | 13.3% | 0.2 |
| Yoshi Tsutsugo | 13.3% | -0.6 |
| Rafael Ortega | 13.1% | -0.1 |
| Jesse Winker | 12.8% | -0.2 |
| Robbie Grossman | 12.7% | -0.8 |
| Steven Kwan | 12.7% | 0.4 |
The story is the same for just about everyone on this list: power and batting average have tanked for these guys early in the season, and they play positions which which do not provide defensive value (think corner OF, DH and 1B). Hicks and Ortega are primarily centerfielders, but they aren’t playing the position well enough to help. Most of these players are established and their teams are waiting for them to return to their previous batting form; Steven Kwan is a rookie who Cleveland hopes can tap into a little more of the power he showed in the upper minor leagues; Tsutsugo and Ortega are here because someone has to take the field for the Pirates and Cubs.
The other takeaway from this group is the observation that there are twice as many high-walk-rate batters who are producing value as there are players on this unfortunate list. Again, since most of these players have track records of success, it can be expected that they will be given every chance to move off this list and into the value category.
I didn’t think I watched a lot of movies in 2021 (except November, which I’ll explain shortly) but when I added them up I was well over 20. Plus, I decided to take up the Noirvember challenge and watch a classic film noir each day. Somewhere in the middle of that 30 day journey I realized that one reason I thought I wasn’t watching as many movies is that (like everyone) almost all of my post-Covid movie watching is at home, and my household is active enough that carving out 2 or 3 hours to get immersed in anything is hard. Modern movies are so much longer than the lean noirs of the 1940s and 50s, which rarely topped 100 minutes; in most cases, this extra length brings no added benefit. Saying modern movies are bloated is obviously a cold take, but my November experience confirmed that my problem isn’t watching movies at home, just watching long movies at home. Because when I looked at my list of modern movies, I realized that I watched most of them in 2 or more sittings.
Because of the volume of movies I watched this year (more than 50 overall) I’m only going to offer extended comments on my favorites. I want to highlight that if you really enjoy well-made movies you should consider The Criterion Channel. For $11 a month, you get hundreds of classic films and modern cinema from the US and around the world. Like all streaming services there are films that come and go every month, and they also will offer specially curated lists of films themed by subject matter, era, filmmaker, and style. I find something new to add to my watchlist every time I log on.
Finally, if a movie was one of my favorites this year, I’ll bold face the entry.
Anyway, on to the list…
New Movies (2020/2021):
Classic (or at least Older) Movies:
The Noirvember List:
Have you seen any of these? Tell me what you thought? What did I get right or wrong?